數據、謊言與真相
最新书摘：
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好吗？好的2022-09-12人们常常说谎，对自己说谎，也对别人说谎。
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好吗？好的2022-09-12小数定律是阿莫斯·特沃斯基（Amos Tversky）和丹尼尔·卡尼曼（Daniel Kahneman）用来指代思维错误的术语，即人们错误地认为无论样本数量多么少，都能反映群族的特征。
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蛙蛙042021-11-21人们发明谷歌，是为了了解世界，而非让研人员了解人类、不过最终结果却是我们上网探求知识时留下的痕迹遭到了很大程度的暴露。换句话说，人们搜寻信息这一行为本身就信息……
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倍儿多2020-02-26Their stunning results were made clear by the title they gave the paper: "Elite Illusion." The effects of Stuyvesant High School? Nil. Nada. Zero. Bupkus. Students on either side of the cutoff ended up with indistinguishable AP scores and indistinguishable SAT scores and attended indistinguishable prestigious universities.The entire reason that Stuy students achieve more in life than non-Stuy students, the researchers concluded, is that better students attend Stuyvesant in the first place. Stuy does not cause you to perform better on AP tests, do better on your SATs, or end up at a better college.People adapt to their experience, and people who are going to be successful find advantages in any situation. The factors that make you successful is your talent and your drive.But there is ...
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Serendipity2018-08-27Urban areas tend to be well supplied with models of success. ... Suburban counties, unless they contained major college towns, performed far worse than urban counterparts. ...The success of college towns and big cities is striking when you just look at the data.
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-25A great conclusion must be ironic. It must be moving. A great conclusion must be profound and playful. It must be deep, humorous, and sad. A great conclusion must, in one sentence or two, make a point that sums up everything that has come before, everything that is coming. It must do so with a unique, novel point ---- a twist. A great book must end on a smart, funny, provocative bang. ...I lived much of my past year as a hermit. Just me and my computer. I lived in the hippest part of New York City and went out approximately never....Thus, I conclude this book in the only appropriate way: by following the data, what people actually do, not what they say. I am going to get a beer with some friends and stop working on this damn conclusion. Too few of you, Big Data tells me, are still read...
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24People adapt to their experience, and people who are going to be successful find advantages in any situation. The factors that make you successful are your talent and your drive. They are not who gives your commencement speech or other advantages that the biggest name-brand schools offer.
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24If Google wants to know how to get more people to click on ads on their sites, they may try two shades of blue in ads--one shade for Group A, another for Group B. Google can then compare click rates. Of course, the ease of such testing can lead to overuse. Some employees felt that because testing was so effortless, Google was overexperimenting. In 2009, one frustrated designer quit after Google went through forty-one marginally different shades of blue in A/B testing. In his excellent book Irresistible, Adam Alter writes about the rise of behavioral addictions in contemporary society. Many people are finding aspects of the internet increasingly difficult to turn off. A/B testing may be playing a role in making the internet so darn addictive.
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24EPCOR, a utility company in Edmonton, Canada, reported minute-by-minute water consumption data during the 2010 Olympic gold medal hockey match between the United States and Canada, which an estimated 80 percent of Canadians watched. The data tells us that shortly after each period ended, water consumption shot up. Toilets across Edmonton were clearly flushing.
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串串麻辣烫2023-01-07在谷歌上，抱怨配偶之间不想要性生活的频率是抱怨夫妻之间不愿说话的16倍，抱怨未婚情侣之间不想要性生活的频率是抱怨伴侣不回消息的5.5倍。
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24Generally, I think many people are secretly sad on Christmas because they are lonely or fighting with their family. More generally, I tend not to trust Facebook status updates, for reasons that I will discuss in the next chapter----namely, our propensity to lie about our lives on social media. If you are alone and miserable on Christmas, do you really want to bother all of your friends by posting about how unhappy you are? I suspect there are many people spending a joyless Christmas who still post on Facebook about how grateful they are for their "wonderful, awesome, amazing, happy life."
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24If your goal is to predict the future----what wine will taste good, what products will sell, which horses will run fast----you do not need to worry too much about why your model works exactly as it does. Just get the numbers right.
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24A team of computer scientists recently analyzed the biggest dataset ever assembled on human relationships -- Facebook. They looked at a large number of couples who were, at some point, "in a relationship." Some of these couples stayed "in a relationship." Others switched their status to "single." Having a common core group of friends, the researchers found, is a strong predictor that a relationship will not last. Perhaps hanging out every night with your partner and the same small group of people is not such a good thing; separate social circles may help make relationships stronger.
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蹲在地球表面2017-05-24Sometimes new data reveals cultural differences I had never even contemplated. One example: the very different ways that men around the world respond to their wives being pregnant. In Mexico, the top searches about "my pregnant wife" include "frases de amor para mi esposa embarazada" (words of love to my pregnant wife) and "poemas para mi esposa embarazada" (poems for my pregnant wife). In the United States, the top searches include "my wife is pregnant now what" and "my wife is pregnant what do I do."