人工智能时代与人类未来（基辛格百年沉淀之作）

• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-05
  迄今为止，基于理性的选择一直是人类的特权——自启蒙运动以来，它也一直是人类的决定性属性。能够近似人类理性的机器的出现，将同时改变人类和机器。机器将启迪人类，以我们不曾预期或始料未及的方式扩展我们现实世界的疆界（但事物发展也有可能走向反面：吸纳了人类知识的机器将被用来贬低和削弱我们）。与此同时，人类将创造出众多能够获得惊人发现、得出震撼结论的机器，它们能够学习并评估其发现的重要性。这些机器的问世，必将开创一个新的纪元。
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-05
  人工智能将使我们迎来一个以三种主要方式做出决策的世界：一是由人类（这是我们熟悉的），二是由机器（这正在变得熟悉），三是由人机合作（这不仅是陌生的，而且是前所未有的）。人工智能也在给机器带来转变，从迄今一直是我们的工具，摇身一变成为我们的伙伴。我们将不再给人工智能那么多具体指令，告诉它如何实现我们分配给它的目标。更多的时候，我们会向人工智能提出模糊的目标，并问：“根据你的结论，我们应该如何推进？”
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-05
  只有极少数技术会挑战我们解释和组织世界的主导模式。但人工智能有望在人类体验的所有领域带来变革。变革的核心最终将发生在哲学层面，即改变人类理解现实的方式以及我们在其中所扮演的角色。
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-05
  纵观历史，人类并非没有经历过技术变革。然而，从根本上改变我们这个社会的社会架构和政治架构的技术却屈指可数。更常见的情况是，为我们的社会环境定序的现有架构适应和吸收了新技术，并在可识别的范畴内不断发展和创新。
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-05
  人工智能的出现迫使我们直面一个问题：是否存在一种人类尚未实现或无法实现的逻辑形式，能够探索我们从未了解甚至可能永远无法直接了解的现实层面？
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-05
  人工智能不是一个行业，更不是单一的产品。用战略术语来说，它甚至不是一个“领域”。它是科学研究、教育、制造、物流、运输、国防、执法、政治、广告、艺术、文化等众多行业及人类生活各个方面的赋能者。人工智能的特点，特别是它的学习、演化和让人大吃一惊的能力，将颠覆和改变所有这些方面。由此产生的结果将是人类身份的转变，以及人类对现实体验水平的提升，所达到的高度是人类自现代曙光初现以来从未企及的。
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  AI breaks this paradigm. It is emphatically dual-use. It spreads easily—being, in essence, no more than lines of code: most algorithms (with some noteworthy exceptions) can be run on single computers or small networks, meaning that governments have difficulty controlling the technology by controlling the infrastructure. Finally, AI applications have substantial destructive potential.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  The most extreme form of such protection will involve severing network connections and taking systems off-line. For nations, disconnection could become the ultimate form of defense. Short of such extreme measures, only AI will be capable of performing certain vital cyber defense functions, in part because of the vast extent of cyberspace and the nearly infinite array of possible actions within it. The most significant defensive capabilities in this domain will therefore likely be beyond the reach of all but a few nations.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  The deepest challenge, however, may be philosophical. If aspects of strategy come to operate in conceptual and analytical realms that are accessible to AI but not to human reason, they will become opaque—in their processes, reach, and ultimate significance.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  In a traditional conflict, the psychology of the adversary is a critical focal point at which strategic action aims. An algorithm knows only its instructions and objectives, not morale or doubt. Because of AI’s potential to adapt in response to the phenomena it encounters, when two AI weapons systems are deployed against each other, neither side is likely to have a precise understanding of the results their interaction will generate or their collateral effects.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  Most traditional military strategies and tactics have been based on the assumption of a human adversary whose conduct and decision-making calculus fit within a recognizable framework or have been defined by experience and conventional wisdom. Yet an AI piloting an aircraft or scanning for targets follows its own logic, which may be inscrutable to an adversary and unsusceptible to traditional signals and feints—and which will, in most cases, proceed faster than the speed of human thought.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  And as AI learns and adapts to geographically or nationally distinct user bases, it may in turn differently influence human behavior in different regions. In this way, an industry founded on the premise of global community and communication may, in time, facilitate a process of regionalization—uniting blocs of users in separate realities, influenced by distinctive AIs that have evolved in different directions. In time, spheres of regional technology standards could develop, with various AI-enabled network platforms and the activities or expressions they support evolving along parallel but entirely distinct lines and with communication and exchange between them growing increasingly foreign and difficult.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  That AI-enabled network platforms created by one society may function and evolve within another society and become inextricable from that country’s economy and national political discourse marks a fundamental departure from prior eras. Previously, sources of information and communication were typically local and national in scope—and maintained no independent ability to learn. Today, transportation network platforms created in one country could become the arteries and lifeblood of another country, as the platform learns which consumers need certain products and as it automates the logistics of provision. In effect, such network platforms could become critical economic infrastructure, giving the country of origin leverage over any country that relies on it.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  Advanced countries are likely to try to avoid depending on products of any other single country for key functions (e.g., social media, commerce, ride sharing), particularly in areas where there are several network platforms available globally.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  If a network platform is useful and successful, it comes to support broader commercial and industrial functions—and, in this capacity, it may become nationally indispensable. At least theoretically, the threatened withdrawal of such a network platform (or its key technological inputs), either by a government or a corporation, serves as a potential instrument of leverage, but by the same token as an incentive to make it dispensable. This hypothetical ability to weaponize network platforms (or other technologies) by withholding them in a crisis may prompt governments to engage in new forms of policy and strategy.For countries and regions that do not produce homegrown network platforms, the choice for their immediate future seems to be between (1) limiting reliance on platforms that could l...
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  The United States has begun to view network platforms as an aspect of international strategy, restricting the domestic activities of some foreign platforms and restricting the export of some software and technology that could facilitate the growth of foreign competitors.
• 目送飞鸿

  2021-12-19
  Many nations are—and are likely to remain indefinitely—reliant on network platforms that are both designed and hosted in other countries. Thus they are also likely to remain, at least in part, dependent on other countries’ regulators for continued access, key inputs, and international updates.
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-06
  但有一点是确定的，那就是人类对事实和真理的追求不应该使一个社会通过一个轮廓不明、无法检验的过滤器来体验生活。对现实的自发体验尽管有其矛盾性和复杂性，却是人类境况的一个重要方面，即使这种体验导致了低效或错误。
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-06
  在文明层面，放弃人工智能是不可行的。领导者们将不得不直面这项技术的影响，他们对这项技术的应用负有重大责任。 至关重要的是，我们需要一种伦理准则，它能够帮助我们理解人工智能时代，甚至在这个时代为我们提供指引。
• 泰迪小熊

  2023-12-06
  但与此同时，人工智能也在减损一些东西。正如我们已经了解到的那样，它加速了人类理性的消解势头：社交媒体减少了反思的空间，在线搜索削弱了概念化的动力。人工智能出现之前的算法就擅长向人类传递“令人沉迷”的内容，人工智能则更精于此道。随着深度阅读和分析的收缩，从事这些过程的传统回报也在收缩。而随着选择退出数字领域的代价日益高昂，人工智能影响人类思想的能力，比如说服、引导、分心，却在与日俱增。结果，个人在审查、检验和理解信息方面的作用被削弱了，取而代之的是人工智能的作用扩大了。