价格革命

• 韧勉

  2022-01-30
  研究价格序列的方法，就像阅读书籍的方式一样多。从表面看，价格是一种流动的记录，记载了在市场交换时商品的花费。这是价格最普遍，也最为人所熟知的含义。与此同时，还可以有另一种方法去研究它们：将其作为货币价值变动的证据一这也是一些经济学家偏爱的考察价格的方式。从第三个方面来说，价格向我们展现了生产系统，尤其是交换的结构一一这是一个历史重要性越来越显著的主题，因为学者们开始发现，交换过程可能在很大程度上起到了马克思笔下生产方式的作用。
• 好养活

  2019-06-29
  To summarise, each price-revolution developed through five stages: slow beginnings in a period of high prosperity a period of surge and decline; a time of discovery and institutionalisation; an era of growing imbalances and increasing instability; and finally a general crisis. The climax was followed by a fall of prices, recovery of stability, and a long period of comparative price equilibrium. The social and cultural impact of these movements changed from one great wave to another. Velocity increased and variability declined. Each successive price-revolution became less catastrophic in its demographic consequences, but more sweeping in its social impact.
• 好养活

  2019-06-29
  In 1937, Japan went to war against China, mainly secure markets and reduces on the Asian mainland. Historian R. A. C. Parker observes that “Japanese civilian authorities in Tokyo were more belligerent than the army.” This was a war of economic ambition; it continued in Asia for eighteen years. In 1939, Germany attached Poland, mostly in search of Lebensraum, living space, which meant land for German farmers and raw materials for German factories.… The beginning of the Second World War at last brought the great depression to an end.
• 好养活

  2019-06-29
  Like every great wave that preceded it, this great movement began primarily because the acceleration of demand outstripped the increase of supply.In other ways, however, the price-revolution of the 20th century was different from its predecessors. In its early and middle stages real wages increased, and keep on increasing until the late 1960s. This pattern was different from other price-revolutions. In the 20th century, the role of trade union, democratic politics, and welfare states had a major impact on returns to labour.
• 好养活

  2019-06-28
  After the mid-sixteenth century, intelligent observers began to discover that a relationship existed between prices and the size of the money supply.…At the same time that these monetarist theories appeared in the mid-sixteenth century, other observers came to a different conclusion that the primary cause of rising prices were the growth of population.…A few people argued a third proposition that the cause pf rising prices was an increase in both population and money. … This was the most accurate explanation, but also the most complex. It had less appeal than simple monetary or demographic models.
• 好养活

  2019-06-28
  These laws had less effect than didi the individual actions of ordinary people. Their responses to inflation caused more inflation. The daily choices that people made in the face of rising prices, tended to drive prices even higher. This happened in many ways — some highly rational, others not. One response was the hoarding of goods. Another was speculation. A third was panic buying. A fourth was the degradation of commodities.
• 好养活

  2019-06-27
  Before we begin to study these relationships, a caveat is necessary. It should be understood clearly that the movements we are studying are waves — not cycles. To repeat: not cycles, but waves.
• 好养活

  2019-06-27
  The differences between them rise in large part from their assumptions about what prices are, and what the world is made of.
• 好养活

  2019-06-27
  Price historians in Europe have suggested seven causal explanations, which might be called the monetarist, Malthusian, Marxist, neoclassical, agrarian, environmental, and historical models.Monetarists understand movements in the “general price level” as changes in the value of money, caused mainly by variations in its quantity and velocity.Malthusians think of price movements in a different way as a material representation of the changing value of commodities that money might buy, caused primarily by imbalances between demographic and economic growth.Marxists think that price movements represent the changing terms of transactions within social systems, mainly between social classes.Neoclassical models perceive prices as indicators of change in the flow of supply and demand, and explain...
• 韧勉

  2022-01-30
  为了在广泛的历史关系中研究价格革命，就要探寻一种更加成熟的解释。在每一次价格革命中，我们都会发现，在察觉到物价会长期上涨之后，货币供应便会疯狂地增加。16世纪的价格革命迫使西班牙统治者（为了赶上物价飙涨的步伐而饱受压力）加倍努力地从美洲领地上取金银。物价和货币供应二者的走势互相加强，共同造成了那个困顿时代一种非常重要的动态。同样的进程还以其他的方式发挥着作用。还有一个货币因素（较之美洲财富，规模较小但依然重要），那就是欧洲贵金属的开采，这在16世纪同样得到了发展。物价大涨造成了对流通货币的疯狂追求。虽然代价高昂，但老矿被重新开启。这项活动多发生在价格革命开始之后。
• 韧勉

  2022-01-30
  过去八个世纪中最严重的通胀，发生在四次物价暴涨的巨浪中。第一次浪潮从12世纪末持续到14世纪初，被称为“中世纪价格革命”。第二次是我们耳熟能详的“16世纪价格革命”，它实际上发端于15世纪，并终结于17世纪中期。第三次浪潮则开始于1730年左右，并在法国大革命和拿破仓战争时期达到了顶峰。它可以被称为“18世纪价格革命”。第四次浪潮起始于1896年，并且延续至今，20世纪20年代和30年代初在某些国家曾短暂地中断过。这是一场20世纪的价格革命。
• 好养活

  2019-06-28
  During the crisis of the fourteenth century, high medieval civilisation had collapsed. In the crisis of the seventeenth century, the civilisation of early modern Europe was shaken to its deepest foundations. But it survived.
• 好养活

  2019-06-28
  The crisis of the seventeenth century was marked by a revival of religious strife.
• 好养活

  2019-06-28
  The general crisis of the seventeenth century felt its mark upon the culture of an age. The greatest works of literature, painting, philosophy, and theology in the era commonly expressed a mood of increasing pessimism and despair.
• 好养活

  2019-06-27
  The arguments of medieval theologians differed in detail from those of modern neoclassical economists, but the conclusions were much the same. Price controls were condemned in the fourteenth century both as constrains upon the free market, and as violations of the will of God. In every price-revolution, as we shall see, propertied and powerful elites would opposed economic controls and profit by their absence.
• 好养活

  2019-06-27
  Real interest rose at a time when real wages were falling.Men of wealth were able to profit by the price-revolution in many ways. Powerful Italian merchants, for example, obtained laws that allowed them to insist on being paid in gold florins or ducats which held their value, but permitted them to pay wages and taxes in silver coins which were much debased. As consequences rich merchants grew richer, and the poor sank deeper into misery and degradation.
• 好养活

  2019-06-27
  But the money supply was not a deus ex machine that descended inexorably upon the economy. It was an artifact of human will and purpose. People responded to the discovery of caristia by deliberately expanding the quantity of money. In cultural terms their actions helped individuals and institutions to cope with high prices, but had the collective effect of driving prices higher. The price-revolution thus became a self-reinforcing process.
• 韧勉

  2022-01-30
  浪漫主义首先是一种新的认识论。它重视感受胜于理性，直觉胜于经验，暖昧胜于明晰。它倾向于回顾过去，而非展望未来。它不太相信理性或人类进步的希望。在欧洲，它常常表现为一种悲思愁绪，甚至于绝望。浪漫主义的代表，是歌德笔下悲伤的少年维特，以及文学界的“狂飙突进运动”，是司汤达对社会的悲剧式呈现以及华兹华斯以云朵和水仙为伴的隐逸生活。在美国，它是爱伦坡的哥特式惊悚故事，是霍桑书中的血色红字，以及梅尔维尔的亚哈船长。在英格兰，它是拜伦笔下的曼弗雷德和恰尔德·哈罗德这两个远离社会甚至远离自我的英雄。这场普遍危机演变成了一场文学革命，改变了西方世界的价值观。从国个
• 韧勉

  2022-01-30
  在美国，富兰克林・罗斯福总统召集了一支能力出众的管理队伍，他们使美国经济成为战争中的制胜法宝。生产率突飞猛进。美国的人均国民生产总值（按定值美元计）在1938年到1944年间翻了将近一番，这是美国近现代历史上最强劲的一次经济增长。在美国，一套包括定量配给和价格控制在内的调控体系收效显著，稳定了欣欣向荣的经济。稀缺食品催生了黑市，但是多数美国人都愿意接受一套更加严格管理的经济制度，作为战争期间共赴国难的努力的一部分。经济学家们，比如战争期间为物价管理办公室工作的约・肯尼思・加尔布雷思，一直都比未曾经历过那段岁月的同行们更加支持物价管控。第二次世界大战期间经济管制的贡献，既是物质上的，也是道德上的。它培育出一种公平和公正的观念，并且维系了一个国家前所未有的凝聚力。