钓愚：操纵与欺骗的经济学

• Markdown

  2021-02-16
  被欺骗者可分为两种类型：心理型的与信息型的。心理型的也可以再分为两种：一种是感性超越了理性，另一种是在对现实的认知上存在障碍，就像在错觉的引导下行动。
• susiehan

  2019-01-28
  2008年的金融危机对所有人来说有如一记当头棒喝，这才知道经济学家长久以来一直忽略欺诈在市场运作的角色。我们已经指出问题所在：这是因为经济学家对市场的了解，总是把欺诈排除在外。正如我们的朋友所说的，这样的病态主要归因于外部性，但是这种看法未能认清竞争激烈的市场本质上很容易产生欺诈，而追逐利益的动机同时也让我们繁荣。
• Yolanda

  2018-06-09
  非类固醇消炎药，例如阿司匹林、布洛芬和萘普生，都能止痛，但是他们都有副作用。此类止痛药通过抑制COX-1与COX-2两类酶起效。抑制COX-2可以减轻炎症与疼痛，但是COX-1 有保护胃黏膜的功能，所以抑制它会导致胃溃疡。各类非类固醇消炎药的过度使用药由此成为老年人一大死因。FDA在禁止有严重长期风险的药品方面的困境要远远超出统计功效的问题：因为FDA给了制药企业至少5种方式，用以自由选择如何实施和发布他们的试验。这一权力使得那些在效果和安全性上都不确定的药品通过审批成为可能。第一，制药公司往往只需要发布两次试验结果来说明药品的有效性。但是，当然，他们也许不会展示其他那些证明药品有副作用的试验（在万络的案例中，关于副作用的研究拖延了很久后才在医学界公布。）第二，制药业在试验周期方面有选择余地。（例如，在VIDOR研究中，3例心肌梗死和因为该药中风的案例被排除在外，因为这些病症是在“早就确定的试验结束日期”之后才发生的。令人觉得奇怪的是，默克公司是在考虑到心血管病症会比胃肠道不良症状早发作一个月的情况下，才选择这一“早就确定的试验结束日期“。）第三，试验可以有策略性地确定总体目标，以凸显药品的有效性，或者不暴露药品的副作用。（我们在庞巴迪等人的研究中看到了这种选择倾向。他们辩称，万洛组的心力衰竭案例仅比萘普生组的心力衰竭案例高4个百分点，萘普生组应该补充服用阿司匹林。意思是，不用担心，这个4%应该从VIGOR试验中被排除掉。）第四，在安慰剂对照方面也有选择余地。（我们现在知道，默克公司故意选萘普生作为VIGOR中的对照组，因为萘普生作为一种非类固醇药品，众所周知，”会比许多其他没有被选择的药品导致更为严重的胃肠道疾病“。如果你希望赢得一场赛跑，那就选择跑得最慢的人当对手。）第五，制药公司可能也会选择全面测试，并选择试验地点。XXX公司只有不到一半的试验是在美国进行...
• 米格21

  2017-05-19
  在高空置率的情况下，房子还在没完没了地建造，这看起来与新房开工的资金可得性相关，而不是和人们的实际需求相关。
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  They shoveled $182 billion into AIG. Remarkably, since $205 billion was recovered, the taxpayers made a proft on the deal. But that is the good end to a bad story: that intervention was needed as a crucial step in saving the world from the Great Depression of the Twenty-First Century.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  Why didn’t we envision that credit would tighten after being loose, and housing prices would fall after rising? … Combined, these errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis, or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  Mortgages could be pooled together into vast packages. And shares in this package could then be sold. The risks would then be spread more widely.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  Before modern fnancial derivatives, corporations would typically slice up the returns to the frm between payments to the bond holders and the payments to stockholders (which might be kept in the frm as “retained earnings”). Bondholders were promised fxed payments; stockholders got the profts that were left over.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  And such a high rating is then what the investment banks now have to provide; otherwise their “customers” will take their business elsewhere. In turn the banks put pressure on the ratings agencies. Again, in the spirit of that frst kiss, little needs to be spoken— probably nothing at all—for the ratings agencies to understand the needs and desires of the investment banks, who pay their bills. They now know: give a low rating; there will be no more deals.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  They would say that we are too materialistic; we have gone to the devil spiritually. But to our minds, the central problem lies in the equilibrium. The free-market equilibrium generates a supply of phishes for any human weakness.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  But free markets have also invented many more “needs” for us, and, also, new ways to sell us on those “needs.”
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-05
  Richard did not, as most of us would do, schedule his prospective buyers to come at diferent times. Instead, intentionally, he scheduled them with overlap. Each buyer, whatever the merits of the prospective car, was then apprehensive that he might lose out: that other guy might get his car.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-04
  politicians silently gather money from the Interests, and use that money to show that they are “just one of the folks.”
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-04
  They must obtain the approval of the Food and Drug Administration, which requires randomized controlled testing; they must also convince the doctors to prescribe their pills.
• 阿晕君

  2017-03-04
  Four broad areas indicate how widespread are the NO-ONE-COULD-POSSIBLY-WANTs, regarding personal fnancial security; the stability of the macroeconomy (the economy as a whole); our health; and the quality of government.
• 佬猿

  2016-06-17
  之所以会出现劳累的家庭主妇和积蓄短缺的情况，都是因为存在一个问题，就是自由市场经济不仅会带来我们真正需要的东西，也会带来那些迎合人性弱点的东西。
• 佬猿

  2016-06-17
  僧帽猴用货币来交易。这些猴子能够给商品估价并交易，这正是自由市场经济的开端。
• 世界尽在果壳中

  2016-03-23
  本书中，通过一系列案例来展示欺骗行为是如何影响我们生活的，影响我们的行为、想法和目标。有很多案例非常贴近日常生活，比如，购买汽车、购买食品、选择药品，以及售卖房屋。还有一些案例更为复杂，比如金融市场。所有这些案例都和我们的社会政策相关，面对市场上形形色色的欺骗行为，我们需要保护自己