凯恩斯《通论》新释

• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-23
  Furthermore, as prices and wages fall, the realization spreads that speculative capital gains can be earned by holding money: velocity will tend to decline. Instead of levering retained quasi-rents to finance investment, firms will use retained quasi-rents to decrease debts (λ of the preceding section becomes less than zero). A wage deflation can be expected to lead to a fall in real investment below the level at which the initial excess supply of labor existed. Downward wage flexibility, in a situation with unemployment, will make things worse.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-23
  As the contractual commitments on inherited debt do not decline as wage income and quasi-rents fall, the proportion of wage incomes and quasi-rents committed by contracts increases: the burden of debt increases in a deflation. Under these circumstances, we can expect the willingness to go into debt to finance investment to decrease; the purchases of investment goods that are financed by monetary changes will decline.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-23
  In the alternative interpretation, the core of Keynes’s system consists of an analysis of capitalist finance in the context of uncertainty, and of how capitalist finance affects the valuation of items in the stock of capital assets and thus affects the pace of investment.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-22
  Thus the message was neglected: it is finance that acts as the sometimes dampening, sometimes amplifying governor for investment. As a result, finance sets the pace for the economy.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-22
  The conclusion to our argument is that the missing step in the standard Keynesian theory was the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context. Once capitalist finance is introduced and the development of cash flows (as stated in the interrelated balance sheets) during the various states of the economy is explicitly examined, then the full power of the revolutionary insights and the alternative frame of analysis that Keynes developed becomes evident.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-21
  Keynesian economics as the economics of disequilibrium is the economics of permanent disequilibrium.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-21
  Keynes’s theory is incomplete without a model of the endogenous generation of booms, crises, and debt deflations.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-21
  However, the concepts which it is usual to ignore or deemphasize in interpreting Keynes, the cyclical perspective, the relations between investment and finance, and uncertainty, are the keys to an understanding of the full significance of his contribution.
• 目送飞鸿

  2019-12-21
  Keynes without uncertainty is something like Hamlet without the Prince.
• antony13

  2016-09-09
  资本主义经济中这种缺陷的存在，是因为金融体系对于资本主义的生命力和持久力来说是必需的——它可以将企业家精神转化成投资的有效需求——这包括由投资猛增所带来的巨大的扩张潜力。这种近乎失控的扩张必须得到控制，因为累积的金融变化会导致金融体系的脆弱性，因此，即使是一般性的金融变化也可能引起严重的金融问题。由于凯恩斯是在相关影响的不确定性条件下考察决策问题，从而得出关于资本主义经济如何运作的观点的，所以凯恩斯体系中的稳定性是不稳定的。即使是所采取的政策措施成功地消灭了大萧条所带来的浪费，资本主义经济中根本的金融特性，还是会导致限制需求和维持需求的周期性困境循环发生。凯恩斯的著作中对由该基本的不稳定性引起的问题提出了一个明确的解决办法，即将公众和私人的需求比重向公共部门转移，那样的话，金融市场和私人投资的不稳定性所导致的潜在恶果就会减少。